M&A Updates

Globally, 2025 has been another year of muted growth for the automotive industry as global vehicle sales volumes are only expected to grow 1.5% to 90 million units by the end of the year. 2026 is expected to be another year of sluggish growth, marked by global geopolitical and tariff uncertainty.

U.S. auto sales have remained resilient despite tariff headwinds. 2025 sales are expected to grow less than 1% compared to 2024. The U.S. auto industry saw a period of increased demand early in the year as customers rushed to purchase vehicles before new tariffs went into effect. Additionally, electric sales saw a bump in the third quarter as customers purchased electric vehicles (EVs) before the discontinuation of certain tax credits in September. EV market share remained steady as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) made up 9% of first-half 2025 sales, compared to 10% in 2024.

Chinese auto sales have accelerated in 2025 with year-to-date (YTD) sales through September up nearly 13% year-on-year (YoY) from 2024. Strong sales figures were bolstered by government subsidy programs, successful new auto model launches and strong consumer confidence. China continues to lead the world in EV adoption, as over half of new cars sold are either BEVs or PHEVs, although EV sales growth is expected to slow down.

In Europe, vehicle sales through the first three quarters of 2025 increased 1.6% compared to 2024. New car registrations declined in the first half of the year, but accelerated in Q3 due to the launch of new car models and better affordability of EVs. EV adoption continues to increase as gas-powered cars only make up 27% of new cars sold so far in 2025. Vehicle sales are expected to remain stagnant in 2026 due to tariffs, the war in Ukraine and increased inflation.

M&A activity in the automotive sector continued its decline through 2025. As tariffs and political uncertainty have made buyers more cautious, only 347 deals closed throughout the year, the lowest yearly total in over 10 years.

Public company equity performance in selected automotive indexes was mixed over the last two years, with the EV index performing better than the S&P 500. The Aftermarket Parts & Repair, Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), and the Automotive Mobility indices performed worse than the S&P 500, but were still positive. The Automotive Dealers and Suppliers indices ended the two-year period negative.