The One Big Beautiful Bill Act – What Does it Mean for the Economy and Businesses?

Cost of Capital

August 14, 2025

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act – What Does it Mean for the Economy and Businesses?

Background

On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed his signature piece of legislation for his second term as the leader of the U.S. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) continues or renews many of the provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), while introducing others that could have a significant lasting impact on the U.S. economy.

According to the Tax Foundation, the OBBBA is expected to increase U.S. economic growth over the next 10 years (relative to a baseline where the TCJA tax incentives were allowed to expire). However, it comes with a significant price tag.1 U.S. government debt is expected to rise to levels that are considered unsustainable and may lead to a combination of higher interest rates and cuts to existing social programs (e.g., Social Security) in the long run.

The ultimate impact of this legislation on the economy cannot be fully disentangled from other U.S. Administration policies regarding trade and tariffs, deregulation, and immigration, which makes scenario planning for businesses an ever more complex exercise.

The following sections highlight some considerations and implications of the OBBBA becoming law.

What Would Happen to the U.S. Economy if the OBBBA Wasn’t Enacted into Law?

At the beginning of the year, economists projected substantially lower real GDP growth for 2025 and 2026 relative to what the U.S. economy experienced in the previous three years.2 Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of the U.S. economy, was expected to decelerate substantially. This was partly due to pandemic-related excess savings being exhausted, but also because the lower individual tax rates enacted by the TCJA were set to expire after 2025 (with rates reverting to pre-TCJA levels).

By making the TCJA individual tax rates permanent (among other provisions), the OBBBA is mitigating the negative impact that a lower disposable income would have had on consumers’ purchasing power. That impact would in turn have hurt demand for goods and services provided by businesses.

What Are Some of the Immediate Effects of the OBBBA?

The OBBBA is expected to provide a short-term boost to economic growth and create a positive environment for M&A and IPO activity, which has struggled this year from a heightened period of uncertainty brought on by volatile tariff and trade policies. It will also help offset some of the negative impact of tariffs on certain industries.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act – What Does it Mean for the Economy and Businesses?

Businesses will benefit from several TCJA tax provisions that had already expired or were about to sunset. The TCJA also limited the ability to deduct certain expenses immediately as incurred, which the OBBBA now makes more favorable to businesses. The following are some of the business-friendly changes or new provisions introduced by the OBBBA:3

  • Bonus depreciation: Qualified property acquired after January 19, 2025, is allowed bonus depreciation of 100%. Qualified property excludes real property, but includes items such as cars, computers or business equipment. While bonus depreciation was available under TCJA, the amount that could be deducted each year for tax purposes was declining over time. It was scheduled to be phased out after 2026. The OBBBA makes permanent the ability to immediately deduct 100% of the expenses incurred on qualified property.
  • Qualified production property expenses: Bonus depreciation of 100% is allowed for qualified production property if construction began after January 19, 2025, and before January 1, 2029, and is placed in service before January 1, 2031. Qualified property is nonresidential real property used in a qualified production activity (i.e., in the manufacturing, production, or refining of a qualified product) and placed in service in the U.S. or one of its possessions.
  • R&D expenses:4 The TCJA made the deductibility of R&D activities less favorable to taxpayers. Domestic R&D was required to be capitalized and amortized over a five-year period, whereas foreign R&D had to be amortized over 15 years. The OBBBA restores the ability to fully and immediately deduct domestic R&D expenses incurred from January 1, 2025. Foreign R&D remains at a 15-year amortization period. The OBBBA also allows taxpayers to accelerate the deduction of any remaining unamortized domestic R&D expenditures.
  • Interest expense limitation: The TCJA introduced limitations on how much interest expense can be deducted each year for tax purposes as a function of an entity’s adjusted taxable income (ATI). Interest expense exceeding 30% of an entity’s ATI—which initially was essentially the same as EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization)—was disallowed as a current deduction and had to be carried forward. That limit became more stringent starting in 2022, with the definition of ATI becoming similar to EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes). The OBBBA restores the more generous definition of ATI (i.e., EBITDA, with certain adjustments) and makes this treatment permanent. Interest expenses incurred in taxable years after December 31, 2024, will benefit from the new definition.

The permanent aspect of the bonus depreciation provisions will incentivize more companies to invest, which in the long run can improve productivity and increase real economic growth. Temporary bonus depreciation tax provisions are seen by economists as simply a timing transfer in spending, with no long-term benefits to GDP growth. Making permanent the ability to immediately depreciate 100% of acquired qualified property brings more stability to businesses when planning out their capital expenditures. It also has a direct positive impact on their bottom lines. Companies in capital-intensive industries (e.g., telecom) will already see an accretive impact on earnings in 2025 from the acceleration of depreciation for tax purposes.

Additional incentives are being provided for the construction of new domestic manufacturing facilities, but they come with a time stamp. There will likely be an acceleration of construction projects, but challenges remain in getting those projects approved and the right workforce in place, so plants come online before 2031.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act – What Does it Mean for the Economy and Businesses?

Economists will generally agree that being able to immediately deduct R&D expenses for tax purposes encourages innovation and investment. This provision was one that pharmaceutical and technology companies were keen on restoring. Because the reinstatement of this favorable treatment is limited to domestic R&D expenses, there may be companies in life sciences and other R&D-intensive industries that move more of those activities back to the U.S.

The combined effects of OBBBA and the threat of significant new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and semiconductors create pressure to relocate R&D and production activities for these industries and will impact supply chains in the years to come. More broadly, the significant investments that companies across all industries are planning to make in artificial intelligence (AI) will partly qualify as an R&D expense for tax purposes, resulting in an immediate cash tax benefit for the entire economy.

The more generous treatment of interest expense limitations will encourage leveraged buyouts by making debt financing more attractive. This treatment will support a latent demand for M&A activity and private equity exits, particularly if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the fall, as expected by markets. Dividend recapitalizations, where a company takes on new debt to pay a special dividend to shareholders, may also benefit from the more favorable interest deductibility treatment. Certainly, lower interest rates would make the use of dividend recaps more appealing.

In the particular case of multinational companies, the OBBBA brings significant changes to international tax provisions, modifying several aspects that were introduced by the TCJA. It will force an adjustment to transfer pricing policies, which will require careful consideration of interactions with the OECD global minimum tax, tariff policies, and other aspects of the OBBBA, such as relocation of R&D or production activities.

Finally, from an industry standpoint, the OBBBA brings notable changes to the energy sector. Tax credits and incentives introduced by the Inflation Reduction Act to promote the production and use of clean/renewable energy are being curtailed. Some incentives are still available, but projects need to be placed in service much earlier than under prior law, which will lead to an acceleration and/or rationalization of projects that can be completed by the new deadlines. On the other hand, subsidies for oil production, pipeline projects, and coal are expanded under the OBBBA.

What Are the Consequences Over the Long Run for the U.S. Economy?

The bipartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the enactment of the OBBBA will result in a net increase in the budget deficit of approximately $3.4 trillion over the 2025–2034 period, relative to CBO’s January 2025 baseline.5 For context, the U.S. has a national debt of $36 trillion, of which $29 trillion is held by the public. For some years now, the CBO has warned that the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, total U.S. government debt has increased substantially, now exceeding 121% of U.S. nominal GDP (or 97% if measured using debt held by the public).6

The good news from the OBBBA is that the federal debt ceiling has been lifted by $5 trillion, which means the U.S. government can continue to borrow for a few more years without the specter of a U.S. default or unpleasant debates in Congress about how much borrowing is allowed. This fact places less immediate pressure on the U.S. Treasury market but does not erase the upward pressure on long-term interest rates from the significant government debt load.

For decades, the U.S. dollar has enjoyed a reserve currency status, which has enabled the U.S. government to borrow at lower interest rates than would otherwise be demanded by investors (given the debt levels). Trade conflicts with the rest of the world have left global investors with a desire to shift some asset allocations to non-U.S. investments or to alternative asset classes such as gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This fact has also led to a significant decline in the value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.

The U.S. Treasury market is still the largest and most liquid in the world. The yields on U.S. Treasuries are still considered the proxy for global risk-free rate and represent a key benchmark for pricing securities in both the U.S. and international markets. But the search for alternative safe-haven assets may result in volatility in long-term U.S. interest rates. Global investors may demand a higher premium to invest in U.S. Treasuries, keeping long-term rates at a higher level and increasing the cost of capital for businesses.

This fact also makes the interest paid on the debt a bigger proportion of the U.S. government’s annual expenses, adding further to the budget deficit. Down the road, it could lead to disruptions in the U.S. Treasury and other financial markets, while forcing the U.S. government to make difficult decisions on spending cuts and/or raising more revenues through taxes.

Some of the added debt burden from the OBBBA could be mitigated by a significant increase in tax revenues from the various tariffs. Depending on the level of tariffs that stay in place after the various rounds of trade negotiations, they could represent a significant source of revenue, offsetting some of the cost to finance the OBBBA. However, it also comes at a cost. According to various sources, the larger the magnitude of tariffs, the bigger the negative effect is on long-term U.S. GDP growth, thereby diminishing the benefits from the OBBBA.

How Can Kroll Help?

The preceding sections highlight some of the changes to federal U.S. and international tax brought on by the OBBBA, but they are not the full picture. Certain aspects of the OBBBA are complex, presenting new regulatory challenges and opportunities to entities. Businesses need to understand and navigate the new law to take full advantage of its benefits and ensure compliance in their day-to-day operations.

More clarity is still needed in many aspects of the law, which will only be possible when related regulations are issued. Other features of the law require immediate attention to take full advantage of some of the tax benefits.

 

Sources:
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that GDP will increase 1.2% over the next 10 years, relative to prior law. This opinion is not universal, however. For example, the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model from the University of Pennsylvania estimates that GDP will fall by 0.3% in 10 years as a result of the OBBBA being enacted. .
2 To compare real GDP growth projections at the beginning of the year with other periods, visit the Kroll Global Economic Growth Projections interactive tool in our Cost of Capital in the Current Environment Infographics page.
This is a simplified discussion of the provisions available under both TCJA and OBBBA.
4 Under U.S. Federal tax law, these are labeled as research and experimental expenditures.
CBO, “Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 119-21, to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of H. Con. Res. 14, Relative to CBO’s January 2025 Baseline,” July 21, 2025.
6 Based on data as of Q1 2025. Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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